After counting the IRV votes, the highest vote getter lost his 100,000 vote lead, and the contest became so close that a recount was requested. The declared winner won with 28% of votes from all ballots cast on election day. We do not know how many 2nd and 3rd choice votes each candidate got, as this data was not released to the public.
(Click on the above picture to enlarge.)
Footnotes to spreadsheet/chart:
[1] State BoE First Round results Nov 2, 2010 http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/22580/41687/en/summary.html (page 20)
[2] State BoE IRV results Dec 13 2010
http://awesomescreenshot.com/0244s72d1 (screen shot)
[3] State BoE IRV results after recount
http://results.enr.clarityelections.com/NC/22803/41461/en/summary.html
The reason for using IRV in this election:
"NC Court of Appeals Judge Wynn was elevated to the 4th U.S. Circuit Court o Appeals. Under the NC Constitution, the vacant office must be filled by an election this November. Thirteen candidates are running for the office. Too late to hold a primary, under NC law, this election will use an Instant Runoff Voting method. Voters indicate who they prefer among the candidates at the "instant" they vote, by ranking as many as three choices 1, 2, and 3. If your 1st choice loses, your 2nd or 3rd choice could determine who wins. Bobby Coggins.(blog)
There were 13 candidates in this non partisan contest and there was no primary. Candidates had access to public funding for their campaigns, but the limited funds had to be shared amongst a large field.
In the first round, Cressie Thigpen (D) was leading Doug McCullough (R) by 100,000 votes.
The top 2 candidates advanced to a runoff. The ballots were counted based on whether they ranked Thigpen or McCullough higher. 45% of those who voted in the Court of Appeals races voted for neither. 2nd and 3rd choice votes for Thigpen & McCullough were added, erasing Thigpen's 100,000 vote lead and putting McCullough about 6,500 votes ahead.
With IRV votes tallied, McCullough won with 28% of all voters' ballots cast on election day.The election was so close that Thigpen called for a recount. This was done by machine so it was no surprise that the results changed only slightly. Thigpen went down 120 votes, from 537,445 to 537,325. McCullough went down 43 votes, from 544,023 to 543,980. McCullough won by 6,655 votes.
McCullough got 19.7% of transfers, Thigpen 11.2%, and nobody 69.2%
The Democrat-registered incumbent appointed by a Democratic governor got a large share of the vote. But there were so many other Democratic candidates, that they weren't likely to result in many successful transfers, especially since the ballot instructions said simply to vote for the candidates in order of your preference - and not vote strategically so your ballot would not be stuck in the trash dumpster. 2.7 million voters went to the polls in November. Only 1.1 million had their vote count in December.
There were fewer Republican candidates, so there was a much greater chance of the vote counting, if you could just get voters to fill out the ballot. And there were more Republican voters in the first place.
Raleigh News & Observer, December 24, 2010. Instant analysis
http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/12/24/879736/instant-analysis.html
Gary Robertson.AP. December 20, 2010. Concession after N.C. Court of Appeals recount widens lead http://hamptonroads.com/2010/12/concession-after-nc-court-appeals-recount-widens-lead?cid=ltst
Doug Clark. Greensboro News & Record. December 16, 2010. Weak defense of IRV
http://www.news-record.com/blog/54431/entry/107176
Reid Overcash. News&Press.December 16,2010 “Instant Runoff Vote” loses its appeal when put to test http://wevegotideas.com/2010/12/16/instant-runoff-vote-loses-its-appeal-when-put-to-test/
Gary Pearce.Talking About Politics. December 16, 2010 Instant Runoff, Eternal Confusion
http://talkingaboutpolitics.com/Home/tabid/36/articleType/ArticleView/articleId/2441/Instant-Runoff-Eternal-Confusion.aspx
Rocky Mount Telegram December 13, 2010 Instant runoff voting runs into issues, too.
That was one ugly way to elect a judge.
http://www.rockymounttelegram.com/opinion/our-views/instant-runoff-voting-runs-issues-too-214919
Charlotte Observer Dec. 13, 2010 Not best way to boost confidence in elections
Instant Runoff Voting was alot faster than the counting.
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/12/13/1906884/not-best-way-to-boost-confidence.html
AP. Raleigh News & Observer December 9, 2010 Judge Thigpen wants Appeals race recount
http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/12/09/851980/judge-thigpen-wants-appeals-race.html
Doug Clark. Greensboro News & Record. December 9, 2010 Editorial: Instant runoff failure
http://www.news-record.com/content/2010/12/08/article/editorial_instant_runoff_failure
Gary Robertson. AP News. December 6, 2010 McCullough overtakes Thigpen in NC court race
http://www.news-record.com/content/2010/12/06/article/mccullough_overtakes_thigpen_in_nc_court_race
Tom Sullivan. Scrutiny Hooligans. November 9, 2010. Short Cuts. http://scrutinyhooligans.us/2010/11/09/short-cuts/
Andrea Pacetti. News 14. October 28, 2010. Board of Elections decides how to count instant runoff votes http://triangle.news14.com/content/top_stories/632050/board-of-elections-decides-how-to-count-instant-runoff-votes (changes tallying method)
Bobby Coggins. October 19, 2010. 2010 Election and this IRV ballot for NC Appeals Court. http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/2010/10/2010-election-and-this-irv-ballot-for.html
Sara Burrows. Carolina Journal. September 29, 2010 How the Instant Runoff for State Court of Appeals Will Work http://www.carolinajournal.com/exclusives/display_exclusive.html?id=6900
North Carolina State Board of Elections. September 29, 2010 Meeting on Tallying IRV
http://www.ncvoter.net/downloads/09_29_2010_NCSBoE_IRV_Tally_Minutes
Bobby Coggins. September 20, 2010. Instant Runoff Voting Strategy for NC Court of Appeals. http://thunderpigblog.blogspot.com/2010/09/strategy-for-instant-runoff-voting-for.html
Joyce McCloy. IRVbad4NC blog. September 19, 2010. 2 Simple Rules for Voters in Instant Runoff Voting for NC Court of Appeals http://irvbad4nc.blogspot.com/2010/09/2-simple-rules-for-voters-in-instant.html
Charlotte Observer September 9, 2010. Potential mess looms in judicial election
http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2010/09/09/1679301/potential-mess-looms-in-judicial.html
BY ROBERT ORR. Raleigh News & Observer September 5, 2010. Order in the court election!
http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/09/05/662859/order-in-the-court-election.html
Doug Clark. Greensboro News-Record September 3, 2010. Editorial: On the wrong track
http://www.news-record.com/content/2010/09/03/article/editorial_on_the_wrong_track
Raleigh News & Observer. September 3, 2010. Test vote
http://www.newsobserver.com/2010/09/03/661319/test-vote.html
Doug Clark. Greensboro News and Record. August 31, 2010. Lucky 13
http://www.news-record.com/blog/54431/entry/97944
GARY D. ROBERTSON AP. August 31, 2010. 13 candidates file for open NC appeals court job
http://www.reflector.com/node/122154
ES&S and PrintElect voting machine co. August 31, 2010. Vendor letter on legal issues with NC Court of Appeals Instant Runoff Voting
http://www.ncvoter.net/downloads/PrintElectLetterAugust31_2010_not_legal
§ 163-329. Elections to fill vacancy in office created after primary filing period opens.
http://www.ncleg.net/EnactedLegislation/Statutes/HTML/BySection/Chapter_163/GS_163-329.html
Sri Lanka Contingent Vote (method used in North Carolina)
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contingent_vote
Wikipedia Article on this contest
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Carolina_judicial_elections,_2010#Court_of_Appeals_.28Wynn_seat.29
If you have other analysis on this contest, we'd love to hear from you. Comments on this blog are blocked but you can email me at joyce (at) ncvoter (dot) net
